As the Major League Baseball season takes swing—with ballparks buzzing, gloves snapping, and the unmistakable scent of pine tar in the spring air—it’s a fresh reminder of just how much America’s pastime can teach us about discipline, strategy, and timing. Baseball, like investing, is an endeavor defined not only by talent but by temperament. It’s a game of inches, of patience, and of perspective.

Across the long arc of a 162-game season, outcomes hinge on small decisions: a mistimed swing, a wild throw, or an untouched base. These moments may last just a few seconds, but their impact can reverberate for weeks—or even change the trajectory of an entire season. Investors, too, face these pivotal moments—particularly during times of heightened market volatility.

Recently, financial markets have experienced their share of curveballs: entrenched trade disputes, geopolitical conflict, and growth scare tremors that can tempt even the most disciplined investors to go off-script. But just like in baseball, success in investing often comes down to fundamentals: situational awareness, staying calm under pressure, and avoiding unforced errors.

In the spirit of baseball’s opening week, we explore three unforgettable plays from baseball history—moments that turned the tide of the game—and how they serve as cautionary tales for investors navigating volatile markets. From missed bases to overaggressive moves and full-blown meltdowns, each example shines a light on timeless investing lessons.

Merkle’s Blunder and the Cost of Not “Touching Base” with Your Advisor

In 1908, Fred Merkle, a 19-year-old rookie for the New York Giants, became the central figure in one of baseball’s most infamous blunders. On September 23rd, in a pivotal late-season showdown against the Chicago Cubs, the Giants were locked in a 1–1 tie in the bottom of the 9th inning. With two outs and runners on first and third, teammate Al Bridwell slapped a single into center field. The crowd at the Polo Grounds erupted as the apparent winning run crossed the plate, fans flooded the field, and Merkle—who had been on first—veered off toward the dugout without touching second base. But the play wasn’t over.

Cubs second baseman Johnny Evers, seeing the opportunity, retrieved the ball (or perhaps a different ball—eyewitness accounts vary) and stepped on second, appealing for a force out. Amidst the chaos, the umpire ruled Merkle out, nullifying the run. The game ended in a tie due to encroaching darkness. When the season concluded with the Giants and Cubs deadlocked atop the standings, a replay was ordered. The Cubs won that makeup game—and eventually the World Series.

Merkle’s mistake was simple: he didn’t complete the play.

During times of market volatility, investors can make a similar error—not by failing to touch second, but by failing to “touch base” with their advisor if concerns arise. And that works both ways, advisors must be in communication with their clients, as well. Communication is the most essential, and often most underutilized, resource available to investors during turbulent markets. Like a third base coach keeping an eye on the whole field, an advisor offers outside perspective, steady guidance, and a clear read on when to advance and when to hold.

Advisors don’t just manage money, they manage emotions, expectations, and long-term plans. By checking in, clients allow advisors to absorb their concerns, refocus on strategic goals, and navigate with confidence, rather than reacting to the noise.

Emotional Trading and the Pirates’ Baez Blunder

In 2021, Cubs infielder Javier Báez created one of the most bizarre baserunning moments in baseball history—and it all stemmed from a routine ground ball. With two outs in the top of the third inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Báez hit a slow roller to third.

But Báez, known for his magic and unorthodox style of play, did something entirely unexpected: instead of running straight through first base, he stopped and retreated toward home plate. And that’s when things unraveled for the Pirates.

Rather than simply stepping on first base to record the third out and end the inning—as is standard baseball logic—the Pirates’ first baseman, Will Craig, followed Báez back toward home plate, attempting to tag him. Meanwhile, Cubs runner Willson Contreras, who had been on second base, never stopped running. As Craig closed in on Báez near the plate, he saw Contreras heading for home, panicked, and flung the ball home, too late to prevent Contreras from scoring. But the chaos wasn’t over.

With no one covering first, Báez reversed direction, sprinted back down the first base line, and reached safely. A follow-up throwing error allowed him to advance all the way to second base. A play that should have ended the inning with zero runs instead resulted in a run scored, an extra base taken, and complete defensive collapse—all because the Pirates panicked and lost sight of the fundamentals.

It’s a perfect metaphor for panic selling in investing. In moments of stress, clear thinking can give way to reactive behavior. Just as Craig had only to step on first base to end the inning, investors in a market downturn often need only stay the course. But when panic sets in, actions become erratic—selling into a downturn, chasing perceived losses, or abandoning long-term plans—and those unforced errors can lead to lasting damage.

The study “When Do Investors Freak Out? Machine Learnings Predictions of Panic Selling” by researchers at the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, found that while panic selling is relatively rare—occurring in just 0.1% of accounts at any given time—it tends to spike during periods of sharp market declines. Critically, over 30% of those who panic sell never reinvest in risky assets, and among those who do return, nearly 60% wait six months or more, often missing the early stages of a recovery. The result: many investors lock in losses and forgo future gains, turning temporary volatility into permanent setbacks.

During volatile markets, sticking with your strategy may feel counterintuitive. But a trusted advisor is there to coach clients through those high-pressure moments. The right move isn’t always exciting; it’s often the steady one. And just like the Pirates could’ve ended the inning with a single step, investors can avoid costly errors by resisting knee-jerk reactions.

Day Trading and the Temptation to “Slap the Ball” – The A-Rod Interference

In the 8th inning of Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS, Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez, desperate to reach first base, slapped the ball out of Red Sox pitcher Bronson Arroyo’s glove as he tried to tag Rodriguez out. It was an aggressive, illegal move that nullified a scoring play and shifted momentum back to Boston. The Red Sox, famously, went on to win that game—and the series.

Rodriguez’s interference play is a vivid metaphor for the desperate measures of day trading. When investors react to market swings by making frequent, aggressive trades, they often end up reducing their own win probability.

The data is clear: more trading often leads to worse results. In their landmark study “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors,” researchers Brad Barber and Terrance Odean analyzed over 66,000 individual brokerage accounts and found that the most active traders significantly underperformed the market. While buy-and-hold investors earned average annual returns close to 17.9%, the most frequent traders earned just 11.4%—a gap driven largely by overconfidence, poor timing, and excessive transaction costs. The study revealed that frequent trading was not a sign of skill, but of behavioral biases, especially the illusion of control and a tendency to chase short-term gains at the expense of long-term performance.

At American Trust Wealth, our fiduciary investment advisors help protect clients from the costly impulse to react. Rather than swinging at every pitch, we keep you grounded in a long-term asset allocation strategy that’s carefully appointed to your goals—and resilient enough to hold up under pressure. Just as championship baseball teams are built to succeed over the course of a full season, not a single inning, your portfolio is constructed to navigate market volatility without sacrificing the bigger picture.

Extra Inning Thoughts: Let the Season Play Out

Baseball, like investing, rewards discipline over drama. A few misplays can cost a game—but disciplined teams win the pennant.

So far in 2025, markets have seen their share of unpredictability, with volatility testing investor nerves. At American Trust Wealth, our fiduciary investment advisors are not only helping clients stay grounded and focused—we’re also serving as the vital link between your needs and our broader investment strategy.

While our Trust Investment Committee actively monitors capital markets in real time, analyzing risks and opportunities across asset classes, our advisors ensure that client voices are heard and factored into the process. It’s a two-way exchange: informed strategy from the top, and real-world perspective from the relationships we maintain with you.

We don’t swing at every pitch. We evaluate, strategize, and execute with your long-term goals in mind.

If recent market moves have left you with questions or concerns, let’s talk. Staying connected is the best way to ensure you never miss the base—and always keep your eye on the scoreboard that matters: your long-term financial success.